By John E. Carey
Peace and Freedom
April 9, 2007
Several issues between China and the United States put the relationship between these two major powers at risk. China greatly wants to calm the waters before the 2008 Olympic Games, which Beijing will host. China’s goal is to stand tall and alone on the world stage for that event, demonstrating Chinese greatness. The U.S. wants to use the Olympics as a lever to influence Chinese behavior on a number of issues prior to next year’s events.
Senator Jon Kyl of Arizona has referred to a “complicated relationship with China, which is difficult to manage under the best of circumstances. There is so much we want to engage with China.”
This week, the U.S. is expected to announce new restrictions on China as a result of copyright and trademark rule violations. China has long had little regard for international agreements regarding intellectual property. Copies of the mega-hit film “Titanic,” for example, appeared on Beijing streets for a dollar or two just one or two days after its Hollywood release.
China is a massive and growing contributor to air and water pollution as well as global warming. As China grows as an industrial super-power, it will have to face its responsibility to address these troubles. As it is now, China is exempt from any restrictions of the Kyoto Treaty because it has been labeled an “emerging or developing nation.” Only “developed” nations like the U.S. and Germany are bound by Kyoto: a major reason the U.S. has refused to join in the accord.
China is home to 20 of the world’s 30 most polluted cities, the World Bank concluded in a report last week.
Officials here have acknowledged that 410,000 deaths a year are caused by pollution in China. And China is projected to surpass the United States and become the world’s largest producer of greenhouse gases by 2009.
By some accounts, China remains two decades behind the United States in its environmental standards and as much as three decades behind Europe.
The U.S. Department of State continues to list China as a major violator of human rights norms.
Freedom of the press is tenuous or non existant in China. Although the communist regime has eased some rules in advance of the Olympics, many journalist are skeptical that China can stick to its promises on freedom of the press. Critics of the regime continue to wind up in jail.
China seems out of step with some internationally held ideas and just positively opposed to the U.S. on others.
Chinese President Hu Jintao visited Sudan this year with nary a mention of the genocide in Darfur. The U.N., E.U., and U.S. have virtually denied Sudan all trade because of Darfur. China jumped right in to fill the void.
When a spokesman for President Hu was pressed on the subject he said, “It was addressed privately.” Just this last weekend, under growing international pressure, China finally sent a delegation to at least look at Darfur.
Chinese representatives at the U.N. have wrangled against stiffer sanctions on Iran for their nuclear weapon development program and they have opposed other U.S. initiatives.
Militarily, China is shifting its focus toward more maritime and air power developments. China shot down an orbiting satellite earlier this year and last autumn a Chinese Song class submarine surfaced within five miles of a U.S. Navy aircraft carrier, an act considered unusual and provocative.
China’s Chief of Naval Operations visited the United States for the first time last week and the U.S. Navy CNO Admiral Mike Mullen said he wanted a better understanding of China’s “strategic intent.”
And China is starting to assert global reach. Last week China opened a new mega-seaport in Gwadar, Pakistan.
Also last week the U.S. Food and Drug Administration announced that the tainted pet food involved in the massive recall was due to ingredients from China.
China and the United States have differences that need to be discussed and resolved.
April 9, 2007 at 11:14 am |
But the U.S. has little leverage with China because China is now the largest foreign holder of U.S. securities. Selling even a portion of them could cause a run on the U.S. dollar. The ocnsequences would be catastrophic primarily for the U.S. and secondarily for China. The U.S., however, is a democracy and would have a much more difficult time dealing with the problems than China which is not. Nations do not always act in their own self interest, and, therefore, China cannot be expected the mutually beneficial trade situation whcih promotes U.S. debt forever.
April 9, 2007 at 12:23 pm |
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April 9, 2007 at 9:42 pm |
The growth and potential of China has been clearly in evidence for some time. Is anyone taking steps to assure a counter balance of power, economic, military, etc. in Asia?
What are India and Japan doing, if anything?
April 12, 2007 at 6:49 pm |
Jerry Lechliter Says:
“But the U.S. has little leverage with China because China is now the largest foreign holder of U.S. securities. Selling even a portion of them could cause a run on the U.S. dollar. The ocnsequences would be catastrophic primarily for the U.S. and secondarily for China. The U.S., however, is a democracy and would have a much more difficult time dealing with the problems than China which is not. Nations do not always act in their own self interest, and, therefore, China cannot be expected the mutually beneficial trade situation whcih promotes U.S. debt forever.”
First off, China is the second largest holder of US securities, Japan holds more than twice as much US debt as China, a fact which is often overlooked in the media (if Japan holding almost $700 billion in US debt isn’t a threat than why is China’s holdings of $250 billion such a big deal?)
Second, any moves by China that hurt the strenght of the US dollar will also put a serious hurt on China’s foreign exchange reserves, the vast majority of which are US dollars. China might seek to diversify its foreign exchange holdings slowly in the future (which would be wise) but using US securities as a negotiation tactic will hurt China as much as it will hurt the US.
Also, to claim that because the US is a democracy China is better situated to deal with its problems is absurd. The threats to China’s stability are numerous and in many cases serious. Rising social discontent, chronic environmental problems, widespread unemployment and social security nightmares are just a few serious issues facing China’s leaders. One of the primary reasons the Communist Regime has been unable to address these problems is because their legitamacy rests not on the will of the people but primarily on their ability to maintain economic growth. They can’t take steps to correct problems if it cuts into their GDP growth so the problems remain and their grasp on powers becomes increasingly threatened. Thus attempts to pressure the US by threatening actions that would hurt both countries’ economies would leave the Chinese leadership in a much more dire position than America’s.
China may be able to survive an economic crisis but its Communist regime, in the present form cannot. Trade disputes and economic crisises may cost the Republicans or Democrats control of the congress or the white house in the short term but it won’t topple our government or political system as it could in China.
April 17, 2007 at 6:19 am |
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