U.S. and Vietnam: Future Strategic Partners?
By John E. Carey
June 22, 2007
Former adversaries, Vietnam and the United States are now engaged upon a long-term effort designed to create and strengthen an emerging strategic relationship.
Without much fanfare, the process of discussions and diplomatic ties that started in 1982 when Vietnam and the U.S. began talking about accounting for American soldiers “Missing in Action” (MIA) in Vietnam has now blossomed into a multi-level strategic effort to forge a future beneficial to both sides.
Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Mike Mullen inspects sailors of the Vietnamese People’s Navy during a welcoming ceremony to mark his visit to Hai Phong, Vietnam on June 20, 2007. Mullen is on a seven-day trip to Japan and Vietnam to visit with counterparts and with sailors stationed in the region. (AP Photo/ U.S. Navy, Chad J. McNeeley)
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In June, 2005, President Bush hosted then-Prime Minister of Vietnam Phan Van Khai for a meeting in the Oval Office.
Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld visited Vietnam early in June, 2006 and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice traveled to Vietnam at the end of July 2006.
President Bush traveled to Vietnam in November 2006 for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference, or APEC. Today President Bush hosts President Triet of Vietnam at the white House.
Vietnam has expressed its intension of playing a larger role in U.N. peacekeeping and similar international operations. Officers from Vietnam’s military are again participating in War Colleges and other professional development activities in Australia and other friendly nations.
Four U.S. Navy ship visits have been completed in Vietnam over the last four years, including a visit by two ships simultaneously during last year’s U.S. Independence Day holiday.
Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Mike Mullen meets with Vietnamese People’s Navy Vice Adm. Pham Ncoc Phin in Hai Phong, Vietnam on Wednesday, June 20, 2007. (AP Photo/U.S. Navy, Chad J. McNeeley)
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The U.S. and Vietnam relationship includes bilateral medical training, cooperation on the war against terror, and counter narcotics work.
According to Professor Carlyle Thayer of the Australian Defense Force Academy, “Vietnam will attempt to fully integrate with the world economy through membership in the World Trade Organization.”
Secretary Rumsfeld said after his visit to Vietnam last year that “we have no plans for access to military facilities in Vietnam.” But many observers believe the long-term U.S. goals for the relationship with Vietnam include access to a deep water port like the former U.S. facility at Cam Ranh Bay, Vietnam and perhaps access to a major air terminal.
Russia completed a twenty-five year lease arrangement for the port at Cam Ranh Bay in 2002 and Vietnam would like to find a new partner willing to pay for access to this highly capable Asian gem, now neglected and in disrepair.
Observers believe the U.S. partnership with Vietnam is meant mainly to counter China’s burgeoning regional influence, which is also a factor in the U.S. military’s strategic Asian repositioning.
“With the U.S. military moving from Okinawa and mainland Japan to Guam, there exists a dire need for a deep-water port in Southeast Asia,” said Vietnam watcher Quang X. Pham.
“Navy ships are visiting Saigon [now called Ho Chi Minh City or just HCMC]. Vietnam’s upcoming intro to the WTO wouldn’t have happened without the normalization of relations with the U.S. in 1995. Most importantly, Vietnam’s top trade partner is its old nemesis, desperate to counter the expanding Chinese economy and mighty military,” said former U.S. Congressional candidate and author Pham.
Demonstrators protest in Lafayette Park across from the White House, Friday, June 22, 2007, as Nguyen Minh Triet, the president of Vietnam was to meet with President Bush. The first visit of a Vietnamese president to the White House since the Vietnam War comes amid harsh criticism by U.S. lawmakers of the communist-led nation’s human rights record. (AP Photo/Ron Edmonds)
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Vietnam experts believe the country’s long-standing difficulties with China also play a role. The two nations have a historic record of disagreement and animosity; now compounded by Vietnam’s envy at China’s record economic growth.
China, now becoming one of the world’s most thirsty consumers of oil, is increasing its naval expansion westward toward the Middle East. Though not a “blue water navy” the equal of the U.S. Navy, the PRC’s naval forces are improving. China’s covetous glare toward Taiwan is also a factor.
“The PRC wishes to take Taiwan whole and intact. To this end, it will follow Sun Tzu’s teachings to win without fighting, bringing every element of national power into full play,” wrote U.S. Air Force Colonel Lawrence M. Martin, Jr. in the Air & Space Power Journal. “Chinese leaders see that a possible US intervention in a Taiwan Strait conflict will rely on a joint force dependent on naval power and airpower.”
A U.S. presence at Cam Ranh Bay could someday markedly change the strategic balance in the region.
China’s acquisition of submarines, more modern anti-ship cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles arrayed across the straight from Taiwan all indicate a future ability to inflict grave damage on the U.S. Navy. Already these forces pose an element of intimidation to Taiwan and the U.S., playing a major role in the U.S. Asia-Pacific military realignment.
Consider also that Vietnam’s national leadership changed last year at this time. Nguyen Tan Dung was chosen by the Communist ruling body as Vietnam’s youngest post-war Prime Minister, arguably the most significant leadership position in the government. Nguyen Minh Triet, the Communist Party head in Ho Chi Minh City, was chosen as Vietnam’s new president, a more ceremonial position. Nguyen Phu Trong was named as new chairman of the national assembly.
Two of the top three Vietnamese leaders are from the south (the home of the government formerly allied with the U.S.). These leaders named nine new cabinet members who were confirmed by the national assembly, including two deputy premiers and the foreign, defense and finance ministers.
Although the Communist party has a firm grip on politics in Vietnam, this sweeping political change marked a watershed. The new leaders are younger, more open to democratic progress, however gradual, and desperately want to increase the economic prosperity of Vietnam.
Many of Vietnam’s goals for the new relationship with the U.S. involve economic expansion. Asia watchers note small signs of deference and respect that signal dramatic new initiatives and areas of emphasis by the Communist leadership. When Bill Gates visited Hanoi during the Party Congress in May 2006, for example, Vietnamese leaders, in a rare gesture of respect, took a recess from the Congress to meet him.
The Communist government of Vietnam offers huge incentives to Vietnamese-Americans, the so called “Viet Kieu” or “overseas Vietnamese,” to open businesses in Vietnam.
Vietnam just opened a newly-constructed Saigon High Tech Park. Again, government incentives make the Viet Kieu from America favored investors and business partners.
And starting in the 2006-2007 school year, all high schools must provide accredited and extensive IT education to all students. Each high school must also be equipped with a computer center with at least 25 computers connected to the Internet. These reforms are dictated by the Communist Party’s Ministry of Education and Training.
But the Vietnamese leaders, like the Communists in China, want to control the internet, monitor usage by individuals , and limit access to many western sites. Prohibited search words include “democracy,” “freedom,” and “declaration of independence.” Many sites Americans take for granted are prohibited in Vietnam.
In the past six years, the Vietnamese economy has grown at an inflation-adjusted average of 7.4%. This year, the government expects GDP to grow by 8.5%. This economic surge is helping to lift many from poverty and is leading to general improvements in infrastructure and quality of life. The poverty rate has decreased to 18% in 2002 and the income per capita has been on the rise, attaining US $550 per person in 2005.
The new leaders have also taken an active role in eliminating corruption and organized crime: decades-long blights on the communist system in Vietnam. Yet progress has been slow: in 2005 Vietnam was ranked 107th of 158 countries on transparency of government corruption according to the annual survey by the Berlin-based organization Transparency International. Despite strong talk about reforms by the government of Vietnam, Transparency International says Vietnam’s ranking has fallen every year since 2001.
Human rights issues, undoubtedly, will become an issue between the U.S. and Vietnam. The U.S. Department of State lists just about every kind of human rights violation as part of Communist Vietnam’s troubling record: including child prostitution, trafficking internationally in human beings, torture, attempts to eliminate undesirable indigenous people (the Hmong) and harassment and beating of religious leaders.
The U.S. Department of State’s report on human rights in Vietnam can be summed up with this quote: “The [Vietnam] Government’s human rights record remained poor, and it continued to commit serious abuses.” But that clinically correct statement almost sugar-coats the reality.
The Communist Vietnamese government has been on a long-term economic improvement effort called “renovation” (Doi Moi). But this reform movement is entirely economic: there are no perceptible renovations in freedom or human rights to date.
Vietnam and the United States are in the midst of a growing strategic relationship that shows great promise for both sides. Today we are at neither a beginning or an end. Whether the two nations can carry forward their objectives to forge a more complete strategic alliance over the course of the next decade depends upon how much each side can accommodate cooperation with the other.
Mr. Carey is a former U.S. Naval officer, president of International Defense Consultants, Inc., and frequent contributor to U.S. national and international media on world affairs.
Editor’s Note: The Author wishes to thank Professor Carlyle A. Thayer, Australian Defence Force Academy, a noted expert on Vietnam.
