Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday November 1: Romney 49% – Obama 47%

Thursday, November 01, 2012

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and three percent (3%) remain undecided. See daily tracking history.

Matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update).

NOTE: Rasmussen Reports is based in Asbury Park, New Jersey and we were hit hard by Hurricane Sandy. However, our survey interview calls are placed from a different location, so data gathering was able to continue. Today, we will release only a limited amount of data. The Rasmussen Challenge is also on hold until next week due to the weather.

New surveying for Monday night finds Romney ahead of the president 50% to 47% in the key swing state of Colorado. That marks little change from a week ago, and the state remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections.

In Wisconsin, surveying from Monday night finds the race remains tied at 49%, just like last week. Wisconsin, too, is still a Toss-Up and is critical to Romney’s fortunes if he loses Ohio.

We will release new numbers out of Iowa later today.

For most of the year, Rasmussen Reports has conducted 500 survey interviews per night and reported the results on a three-day rolling average basis. For the final week of the campaign, we will conduct 1,000 survey interviews per night.

In the battle for the White House, the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projections now show the president with 237 Electoral Votes and Romney 206. The magic number needed to win the White House is 270. Eight states with 95 Electoral College votes remain Toss-ups:Colorado,  Florida,Iowa,NevadaNew HampshireOhioVirginia and Wisconsin.

If you’d like Scott to speak to your organization, meeting or conference, please contact Premiere Speakers.

(Presidential Job Approval Data Below)

A president’s job approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the president’s job approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 49% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president’s job performance. Another 49% at least somewhat disapprove (see trends).

Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and additional information from the tracking poll on a daily basis.

Thirty-nine percent (39%) of Likely U.S. Voters say the country is heading in the right direction. That’s the highest level of optimism since May 2009. The latest finding is up 15 points from 24% at the beginning of the year and up 22 points from 17% a year ago.

Republicans now lead Democrats by three points on the Generic Congressional Ballot.

The economy, the debates and the Electoral College were the topics on this week’s edition ofWhat America Thinks , Scott Rasmussen’s new weekly television show.  Joining Scott to discuss the foreign policy issues of Election 2012 are Terra Lawson-Remer of the Council on Foreign Relations and Michael Balboni, the former head of homeland security for New York. The show is seen on more than 60 stations nationwide.

Rasmussen Reports is a media company whose work is followed by millions on a wide variety of platforms. In addition to the new TV show, we regularly release our work at RasmussenReports.com, through a daily email newsletter, a nationally syndicated radio news service, an online video service and a weekly newspaper column distributed by Creators Syndicate.

Rasmussen Reports polling tends to show less volatility than other polls for a variety of reasons. In 2008, we showed virtually no change during the final 40 days of the campaign.  Then-candidate Obama was between 50% and 52% in our polling every single day. He generally held a five- or six-point lead, occasionally bouncing up to an eight-point advantage and only once falling below a four point-lead. This stable assessment of the race is consistent with the reality of what we know about voter behavior. Obama won the election by a 53% to 46% margin.

To get a sense of longer-term Job Approval trends for the president, Rasmussen Reports compiles our tracking data on a full month-by-month basis.

(Approval Index data below)

Intensity of support or opposition can have an impact on campaigns. Currently, 30% of the nation’s voters Strongly Approve of the way Obama is performing as president. Forty-one percent (41%) Strongly Disapprove, giving him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -11 (see trends).

During midterm elections, intensity of support can have a tremendous impact on turnout. That was demonstrated in 2010 when Republicans and unaffiliated voters turned out in large numbers to express opposition to the Obama administration’s policies. However, in presidential election years, there is a smaller impact on turnout. Still, all indications so far for Election 2012 suggest that Republicans are more engaged and more likely to turn out.

(More below)

Rasmussen Reports has been a pioneer in the use of automated telephone polling techniques, but many other firms still utilize their own operator-assisted technology (see methodology). Pollsters for Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton have cited our “unchallenged record for both integrity and accuracy.” During Election 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama was 53% to 46%. In 2004, Rasmussen Reports was the only firm to project the vote totals for both candidates within half a percentage point. Learn more about the Rasmussen Reports track record over the years.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters is +/- 2.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for full-week results are available for Platinum Members.

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