US added 151K jobs in August — Below economist predictions — September rate hike may be delayed by The Fed

The CME Group FedWatch probability for a September rate hike dropped after the August jobs report missed expectations.

Nonfarm payrolls came in at 151,000 for the month of August, below economist predictions for 180,000, according to a consensus estimate from Thomson Reuters.

Traders tracked by the CME now see about a 18 percent chance of a September rate hike. They sat at a 27 percent chance before the report, but dropped as low as 12 percent after.

Before the jobs report, the market estimated a 57.6 percent chance of a December rate hike, but those predictions, which dropped as low as 51.2 percent, now sit near 53.5 percent.

Thirty-day fed funds futures prices are widely considered a reliable indicator of U.S. monetary policy changes. CME’s FedWatch tool tracks the target rates based on fed funds futures contract prices.

A reading above 50 percent indicates the market’s guess for the next rate hike.

After the jobs report, odds dropped in all months tracked by the CME:

  • September: 18 percent, down from 27 percent prior to the 8:30 a.m. ET report.
  • November: 24.8 percent, down from 31.6 percent
  • December: 53.5 percent, down from 57.6 percent
  • February 2017: 56.2 percent, udown from 59.3 percent
  • March 2017: 62.1 percent, down from 64.8 percent
  • May 2017: 63.7 percent, down from 66.2 percent
  • June 2017: 68.8 percent, down from 70.8 percent
  • July 2017: 69.6 percent, down from 72.4 percent

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/02/odds-for-a-sept-rate-hike-drop-after-jobs-report-misses-expectations.html

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One Response to “US added 151K jobs in August — Below economist predictions — September rate hike may be delayed by The Fed”

  1. daveyone1 Says:

    Reblogged this on World Peace Forum.

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