History will be on Donald Trump’s side on Election Day, according to election forecaster Allan Lichtman.
- But in a year of muddled political orthodoxy, Trump “may well break the pattern of history and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory,” Lichtman said in interview after formally declaring the Republican nominee as the favorite to win on November 8
- Lichtman’s prediction model, which isn’t based on polls, suggests victory for a “generic” GOP candidate
- “Trump is anything but generic”: Lichtman
- The American University professor’s “Keys to the White House” system looks at 13 true/false questions. If six or more of the keys go against the incumbent party occupying the White House then that means a win for the challenger; exactly six keys are now turned against Democrats, including one addressing Hillary Clinton’s candidacy and the perception she doesn’t possess the outward charisma of a Barack Obama or national-hero status of a Dwight Eisenhower
- While former Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders won over a horde of young people by taking on the status quo, Clinton has yet to find a “simple, compelling message to inspire people”: Lichtman
- That’s the challenge for her in Monday night’s first presidential debate, he says, where she’ll need to show in clear terms how “fundamentally” she and the GOP nominee differ in their competing visions for the future
- “I don’t think anyone could tell you in one sentence what Clinton’s message is,” he says
If history is a guide, then Donald Trump will move into the White House in January, says forecaster Allan Lichtman, who has correctly called every presidential election since 1984.
The New York Times editorial board threw its support behind Hillary Clinton in a piece published online Saturday, saying its endorsement was “rooted in respect for her intellect, experience, toughness and courage” and making only parenthetical references to her rival, Donald Trump.
But the baby steps of progress marking Clinton’s resume, the editorial board said, “shows a determined leader intent on creating opportunity for struggling Americans at a time of economic upheaval and on ensuring that the United States remains a force for good in an often brutal world.”
The Times honed in on her foreign policy accomplishments, including her efforts leading to the Iran nuclear deal and her negotiations as secretary of state that led to a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas. The paper acknowledged that Clinton “bears a share of the responsibility” for the failings of the Obama administration, including in Libya, but argued that “her achievements are substantial.
The paper also praised domestic issues and policies Clinton has tackled over her years as a public servant, including her record on helping women and families. While conceding that some have criticized Clinton for her “opportunistic” approach to certain policies like immigration and trade, the Times credited her for “arriving at the right position” in the end.
The Times lauded Clinton’s capacity for bipartisanship, noting the not insignificant obstacles placed in her path by the opposing party.
“Over eight years in the Senate and four as secretary of state, she built a reputation for grit and bipartisan collaboration. She displayed a command of policy and diplomatic nuance and an ability to listen to constituents and colleagues that are all too exceptional in Washington,” the board wrote. “She is one of the most tenacious politicians of her generation, whose willingness to study and correct course is rare in an age of unyielding partisanship.”
Addressing the former secretary’s troubles with her private email server, the Times board waved off Clinton’s “share of mistakes.”
“She has evinced a lamentable penchant for secrecy and made a poor decision to rely on a private email server while at the State Department. That decision deserved scrutiny, and it’s had it,” the board said. “Now, considered alongside the real challenges that will occupy the next president, that email server, which has consumed so much of this campaign, looks like a matter for the help desk.”
The Times focused its pro-Clinton argument on the Democratic nominee herself, rather than comparing her to Trump. The editorial board made a single brief but pointed mention of the GOP candidate as the “worst nominee put forward by a major party in modern American history” before declaring that “the best case for Hillary Clinton cannot be, and is not, that she isn’t Donald Trump.”
“The best case is, instead, about the challenges this country faces, and Mrs. Clinton’s capacity to rise to them,” the editorial board wrote.
Obama Sees His lame Duck Time Begin
By The New York Post Editorial Board
President Obama just took a fateful step that’s near-certain to mark the start of his lame-duck days in office — the time when members of Congress don’t worry about crossing him because he’s got so little time left to take revenge.
Obama late Friday formally vetoed the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act, which would let the families of 9/11 victims sue Saudi Arabia over its alleged role in aiding the attacks. But Congress is poised to override his veto for the first time ever.
Even New York’s own Chuck Schumer, the next leader of the Senate Democrats, is on board — as is Nancy Pelosi, the leader of the House Democrats.
The New York senator called Obama’s veto “disappointing,” and said justice shouldn’t be “thrown overboard because of diplomatic concerns.”
On policy, the president makes some good points: His fears that the bill might backfire by prompting retaliation against US assets and personnel abroad are shared by such stalwart Republicans as former US Attorney General Michael Mukasey and former UN Ambassador John Bolton.
But the politics are another matter: On this, he’s fighting 9/11 families who strongly support JASTA as a path toward full accountability — and also trial lawyers, a key Democratic constituency, who drool at the prospect of vast fees from suing the Saudis.
Obama can take solace in this much: He’s made it awfully far before reaching this point. We’re just weeks from the Election Day that will choose his replacement; most presidents go lame long before this point.
Europe says No Trade Deal Until After Obama Gone
Bratislava (AFP) – A last-gasp push to seal a landmark free trade deal between the European Union and the United States before the end of Barack Obama’s presidency has failed, EU ministers agreed on Friday.
“It is not realistic to reach the final agreement by the end of the Obama administration,” said Peter Ziga, the trade minister of Slovakia which currently holds the EU’s six-month rotating presidency.
The decision puts the fate of the accord on the US side in the hands of Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump, who are both running their presidential campaigns on anti-trade deal platforms.
The highly ambitious Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (or TTIP) would create the world’s biggest market of 850 million consumers stretching from Hawaii to Lithuania.
But with talks dragging on since 2013, opposition has grown, most dangerously in key member states France and Germany amid fears that TTIP will undermine European standards on health and the environment.
EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstroem, who leads the talks with the US, said it takes five or six months for a new American administration to be fully in place and that effectively puts the negotiations on hold.
“When we can restart, (that) is a bit too early to speculate until we know what the administration would look like,” she said after EU trade ministers met in the Slovak capital.
The ministers met hoping to patch up deep differences after tens of thousands of demonstrators thronged European cities in recent days demanding the EU walk away from the deal.
“From our point of view, the (TTIP) talks are effectively suspended because meaningful negotiations are no longer taking place,” said Reinhold Mitterlehner, the economy minister from Austria where opposition to the deal is fierce.
“It would be wise to put on mute something that is perceived so negatively,” he added, confirming a position Austria shares with France.
– ‘Restart’ TTIP –
Critics complain that the US side has failed to offer any serious proposals, especially on sensitive issues such as protecting geographical labelling for renowned farm products such as Champagne or Roquefort cheese.
“I am convinced that we must restart on totally new grounds,” said French Trade Minister Matthias Fekl, one of TTIP’s loudest critics, adding that more and more member states were coming round to his view.
In Germany, TTIP has split the ruling coalition, with Chancellor Angela Merkel still its biggest backer but her socialist partners, led by Vice-Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel, dead set against it.
Hopes were strong meanwhile for CETA, a similar deal with Canada that has already been negotiated but which had to overcome unexpected hurdles in Austria and Germany.
Fears of a failure of CETA have waned since Gabriel’s socialists narrowly backed the deal at a party conference last week.
Last-minute opposition also flared up in Austria and Belgium but the ministers now expect to approve the agreement next month so that it can be signed with Canadian Premier Justin Trudeau at an EU-Canada summit on October 27.
CETA would then go on for ratification in national and regional parliaments across the EU, a tricky and time consuming process, though most of the terms will be able to be implemented provisionally.
Opponents believe CETA is an attempt to set a dangerous precedent before completing the much bigger accord with the US.
More than 160,000 demonstrators thronged major cities across Germany on Saturday in opposition to both trade deals. Thousands more protested outside EU headquarters in Brussels on Tuesday.
Our endorsement is rooted in respect
for her intellect, experience and courage.
HILLARY CLINTON FOR PRESIDENT
The New York Times
SEPT. 24, 2016
Tags: American University, Angela Merkel, Barack Obama, CETA, Donald Trump, EU, Europe says No Trade Deal Until After Obama Gone, European Union, families of 9/11 victims to sue Saudi Arabia, free-trade deal, French Trade Minister Matthias Fekl, Hillary Clinton, Hillary Clinton’s candidacy, Iran Nuclear Deal, Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act, Keys to the White House, New York Times Endorses Hillary, Obama, private email server, Saudi Arabia, TTIP
This entry was posted on September 25, 2016 at 7:33 am and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.