Pay up, make nice if you want “soft Brexit”, EU to tell May — Plus Hammond’s plan for soft Brexit days before talks open

 

“I think on balance in the House of Commons there is a majority for something softer than Theresa May’s idea of Brexit.”

Reuters

By Alastair Macdonald | BRUSSELS

Theresa May should agree to pay Britain’s bills to the European Union and drop threats to walk out without a legal deal if she wants talks on the “softer Brexit” some of her allies are calling for, EU negotiators say.

If the chastened prime minister and Brexit Secretary David Davis take a gentler tone when talks finally launch in Brussels next week, they could win valuable concessions, some think.

A week after May lost her majority in an election she had called in the hope of strengthening her hand in the talks, some fellow Conservatives want her to focus more on limiting the damage to business and less on cutting immigration and other ties to the EU when Britain leaves the bloc in March 2019.

Other EU governments will be happy to let Britain keep trade open as it would limit the hit to their own economies, officials told Reuters, though they are not ready to ease conditions that May would struggle to sell to her party’s Brexit hardliners.

But speculating now on different kinds of trade pact – on “soft Brexit” or “hard” – is to put cart before horse, they say. EU leaders gave chief negotiator Michel Barnier no authority to so much as talk about trade until he clinches outline deals on Brussels’ priority issues, including on what London owes them.

Barnier this week acknowledged “sensitivity” in London at EU suggestions that Britain might owe it some 60 billion euros in 2019 and said sorting out the issue soon would help a trade deal: “I would like to very quickly play down this question, and find concrete, pragmatic and just solutions,” he said on Monday.

“We need trust to build the future relationship.”

EU leaders, who will meet May at a summit next Thursday, have been irritated by her repeated threats to walk out with “no deal” — even if most see that as a campaigning bluff given the chaos it would cause. They are also irked by her refusal to say Britain will definitely pay what Brussels calls a “hefty bill” — some ministers have even said the EU may owe London money.

HAGGLING OVER BILL

If Davis, who launches the formal negotiations with Barnier on Monday, can show British willing on the EU’s priority “Phase One” issues, then trade talks could get under way by the turn of the year — a step-by-step timetable Barnier says must be followed to limit the risk of a disruptive “no deal” scenario.

An EU official close to the matter said the “softer Brexit” talk could be “productive” and help progress in the first months, where the British attitude to discussing the financial settlement “will be the first serious test of the negotiations”.

There are also differences over the other priority issue for Brussels — securing the rights of 3 million EU citizens living in Britain — but diplomats see those as less problematic.

And as leaders welcomed the new tone in London and talk of a “softer Brexit” that may be less disruptive than May’s clean break with the single market and customs union, officials from at least some governments saw compromise on the British bill.

“If they refuse to pay, there will be no agreement,” a senior official handling Brexit for one EU member state government told Reuters. “However, discussing about the amount of money, here there will be flexibility,” he added.

A senior Brussels official said the amount, which compares to London’s annual net EU payment of around 10 billion euros, would still be “peanuts” in terms of the overall economy and also that the final bill would be determined less by technical and legal arguments than by hard-headed political horse-trading.

TRADE TRADE-OFFS

Significant progress in talks on the budget and citizens’ rights issue, as well as on issues around the new EU-UK land border in Ireland, would allow EU leaders to give Barnier a mandate by December to discuss a future, close relationship and, potentially, years of transition after 2019 to smooth its way.

Barnier speaks of a willingness to look at various options but EU officials also stress that greater access to EU markets will mean accepting greater costs, closer to EU membership, and question whether Britain can find a political consensus on that.

The other 27, including lead powers Germany and France, want to dissuade others from emulating Britain and so insist that any Brexit deal must be less advantageous than full membership.

“All the options are balanced and come with obligations,” an EU official working on Brexit said, noting that May had seemed to be looking for a sweeping free trade deal like that agreed last year with Canada but that some of those calling for “soft” Brexit cited arrangements such as those with Norway and Turkey.

Norway is in the single market, in return for accepting free immigration from the EU, EU courts and budget payments. Turkey has special arrangements with the customs union but must follow Brussels in trade policies with other global players.

For Brussels, a concern with starting talks on such models would be that Brexit supporters might end up blocking them, raising the risk of time running out to get any deal: “Would you … 10 months later find that there was no real majority for that?” the official said. “It all becomes very uncertain.”

(Reporting by Alastair Macdonald; @macdonaldrtr; editing by Mark John)

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Hammond’s plan for soft Brexit days before talks open

At loggerheads: Philip Hammond is fighting Theresa May for a softer Brexit

At loggerheads: Philip Hammond is fighting Theresa May for a softer Brexit CREDIT: REUTERS

Philip Hammond is drawing up detailed plans for a softer Brexit that will prioritise “protecting jobs” over Britain’s ability to strike free trade deals after Britain quits the EU.

Senior Whitehall sources have told The Daily Telegraph that Mr Hammond is pushing for a bespoke deal under which Britain would retain associate membership of the EU’s customs union, but retain the freedom to negotiate separate deals on trade services.

As he entered a meeting of EU finance ministers in Luxembourg yesterday, the Chancellor made clear that he was not giving up his battle to resist a hard Brexit. “My clear view, and I believe the view of the majority of people in Britain, is we should prioritise protecting jobs, protecting economic growth and protecting prosperity,” he said, in an apparently open challenge to hardline Brexiteers.

Read the rest:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/16/revealed-hammonds-plan-soft-brexit-days-talks-open/

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‘Soft Brexit’ Forces Rise in Britain on the Eve of Talks

LONDON — Ridiculed by the right-wing tabloid media and ignored by Prime Minister Theresa May as she pursued plans for a clean break with the European Union, Britain’s pro-Europeans suddenly have something they have long wanted: leverage.

After the recent stunning general election, in which her governing Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority, Mrs. May faces pressure from both inside and outside the party to soften her plans to exit the bloc, a process known as Brexit, as talks are set to begin on Monday.

The pro-Europe Britons’ demands that Mrs. May maintain closer ties to the European Union have grown louder and more assertive — in particular the calls to keep Britain in Europe’s customs union, which provides tariff-free access to Continental markets and helps integrate the British and European economies.

For the first time since the referendum on Britain’s exit, there is “an opportunity to have a much better relationship with the European Union,” said Roland Rudd, a senior figure in the defeated “remain” campaign and founder of Finsbury, a communications company.Anand Menon, a professor of European politics and foreign affairs at King’s College London, said, “I think on balance in the House of Commons there is a majority for something softer than Theresa May’s idea of Brexit.”

This, Professor Menon said, creates a difficult and dangerous dynamic for Mrs. May. She emerged from the snap election she called with a far weaker hand for Brexit negotiations, and must also avert a return to feuding over Europe in her Conservative Party, where there is still strong support for a tough stance.

Read the rest: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/16/world/europe/britain-brexit-theresa-may.html?_r=0

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2 Responses to “Pay up, make nice if you want “soft Brexit”, EU to tell May — Plus Hammond’s plan for soft Brexit days before talks open”

  1. Brittius Says:

    Reblogged this on Brittius.

  2. daveyone1 Says:

    Reblogged this on World Peace Forum.

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