Harvard study predicts dramatic fall in China’s economic growth, impressive rise for India

BEIJING: A Harvard University study has projected a dramatic fall in China’s economic growth to 4.41 per cent in the coming years until 2025. On the other hand, India would perform extremely well growing at 7.72 per cent during the period, Havard’s Center for International Development said in a study.

“The economic pole of global growth has moved over the past few years from China to neighboring India, where it is likely to stay over the coming decade,” it said.

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping exchange greetings at the BRICS leaders’ informal gathering, in Hamburg, Germany on Friday. (PTI)

What is significant that even Indonesia, Vietnam, Uganda, Kenya and Mexico are expected to perform a lot better than the world’s sector biggest economy, according to the report.

“China’s rapid growth rate over the past decade has narrowed the gap between its complexity and its income, which researchers suggest is the harbinger of slower growth,” CID researchers said adding, “The growth projections still have China growing above the world average, though at 4.4 percent annually for the coming decade, the slowdown relative to the current growth trend is significant”.

Elaborating further, Ricardo Hausmann, director of CID, professor at the Harvard Kennedy School (HKS), said, “The major oil economies are experiencing the pitfalls of their reliance on one resource. India, Indonesia, and Vietnam have accumulated new capabilities that allow for more diverse and more complex production that predicts faster growth in the coming years”.

The study said that “The growth projections are based on measures of each country’s economic complexity, which captures the diversity and sophistication of the productive capabilities embedded in its exports and the ease with which it could further diversify by expanding those capabilities”.

The researchers emphasized that there are many steps policymakers, investors, and business leaders can take to enter more complex production to realize faster growth.
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http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/harvard-study-predicts-dramatic-fall-in-chinas-economic-growth-impressive-rise-for-india/articleshow/59517456.cms
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