Posts Tagged ‘Harris poll’

Harris Poll Says Most Americans Agree With President Trump on Immigration

January 25, 2018

Thursday, January 25, 2018

Image result for Mark Penn of the Harris Poll, photos

Mark Penn of the Harris Poll appeared on “Fox and Friends” this morning with Steve Doocy to say, “Our polling shows that most Americans agree with president Trump on immigration.”

Americans want an end to chain migration and the lottery and they want a meaningful barrier on the southern border,” he said.

“They also want us to get beyond DACA.”

Makes one wonder why we had a government shutdown at all….

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From NPR

Deputy White House press secretary Hogan Gidley touted a Harvard Harris poll on Morning Edition Tuesday, saying that it showed Americans support the president’s agenda.

“It’s an 80-percent issue, people want to close down the borders,” he told NPR’s Rachel Martin. “It’s a 70-percent issue to end chain migration. [A] 68-percent issue to end the visa lottery program and ask people to come here on merit. That’s a 70-percent issue. And this is a study from Harvard.”

First things first — there’s a lot more to these poll numbers than Gidley is saying.

That Harvard Harris poll didn’t find that 8 in 10 Americans want to “close down the borders.” Rather, it asked Americans, “Do you think we should have basically open borders or do you think we need secure borders?”

Given the choice between “open borders” — a position that no mainstream political leaders are proposing — and a “secure border,” which is current U.S. policy, 79 percent of Americans agreed that the U.S. needs “secure borders.”

It is true that 68 percent of Americans said they oppose “the lottery that randomly picks 50,000 people to enter the U.S. each year for greater diversity.” And in fact, even more (79 percent) favored merit-based immigration over family-based migration, based on a question asking whether “immigration priority for those coming to the U.S. should be based on a person’s ability to contribute to America as measured by their education and skills or based on a person having relatives in the U.S.”

But then, that question provides an argument for using education and skills as a factor (“ability to contribute to America”) but not for using family ties. That may have swayed respondents toward the merit-based choice.

It’s also possible that the question gave some respondents the idea of a false choice, said one immigration researcher.

“It shouldn’t have to be an either-or,” said Randy Capps, director of research for U.S. programs at the Migration Policy Institute, a nonpartisan Washington, D.C.-based immigration think tank.

It’s possible, he added, for a system to incorporate both “merit” and family ties.

“You can have both — you get more points for having higher education, you get more points for knowing English, you get more points for having a close relative,” he said.

“I think what they’re saying here is merit should have more of a preference than relatives,” said Mark Penn, codirector of the Harris Poll. “I don’t think we polled a full battery of specific chain migration policy here. I would read this as saying that you see the public backing limits” on the idea of family-based immigration, he added.

Right now, both family- and skills-based immigration exist in the U.S., though far more — around two-thirds — is based on family ties, according to Capps. Meanwhile, around 15 percent of admissions to the country are related to jobs and skills. On top of that, there are diversity visas, visas for investors who create jobs and allowances for refugees.

The numbers shift heavily depending on how the question is asked, however. In a Morning Consult/Politico poll from August 2017, there was a question asking if there should be a “greater emphasis on an applicant’s job skills over their ties to family members.”

Fifty-six percent either strongly or somewhat supported this, while 42 percent opposed it. That’s still a majority who favor merit over family, but it’s a smaller majority.

That poll asked these questions still other ways, though. For example, when the poll separated out different potential factors, several had strong support. Fully 60 percent of Americans said that “ties to family members in the United States” “should be a factor” in determining who should get to legally immigrate to the U.S. The poll also found that 57 percent believe education should be a factor, and that 54 percent believe “professional or academic achievement” should factor in.

In other words, when it’s not presented as an either-or choice, Americans appear to have a more nuanced view on family-versus merit-based immigration.

What Americans do seem to believe

Americans’ support on any given issue can jump around over time, and depending on when and how the questions are asked, the answers can be interpreted any number of ways. But based on an array of reputable polling, here are a few reasonable conclusions to draw.

1. Americans support letting DACA recipients stay.

That latest poll from the Washington Post found that 87 percent of Americans support “a program that allows undocumented immigrants to stay in the United States if they arrived here as a child, completed high school or military service and have not been convicted of a serious crime.” An NBC News/Survey Monkey poll released Tuesday likewise found that 66 percent of Americans support “the DACA (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals) policy, which protects those who were brought into the United States as undocumented children from being deported.”

There’s a more than 20-point gap there, but these two results do join months of poll findings showing that find that a majority of Americans support the idea behind DACA, allowing children brought to the U.S. illegally to stay in the U.S.

2. Americans aren’t that wild about a “wall.” (A different kind of fence, however …)

January polls from Quinnipiac, Pew, ABC News/Washington Post, CNN and CBS all find that around 6 in 10 Americans oppose building or expanding a wall along the U.S. border with Mexico.

That said, all of those polls asked about building a “wall” specifically. But the definition of “wall” is fluid. While Trump has long advocated for a border wall, he has also said that in some places on the border, “natural barriers” would take the place of that kind of barrier. And Republican senators recently said that the “wall” would be more of a “fence.”

But that Harvard Harris poll didn’t find such strong opposition to a border barrier. It found that 54 percent of Americans support “building a combination of physical and electronic barriers across the U.S.-Mexico border.”

It could be that some Americans oppose a “wall” but believe in using a mix of resources as border barriers. It could also simply be that the word “wall” is at this point so politicized that some Americans instinctively oppose it while still wanting more of a barrier at the border.

3. Americans are divided on legal immigration levels, but are more in favor of decreasing than increasing them.

For decades, Gallup has asked Americans if they think the level of legal immigration should be “kept at its present level, increased, or decreased.” In recent years, Americans have been closely split between holding steady (38 percent as of June 2017) and decreasing (35 percent). The remainder, around 1 in 4, want to increase legal immigration.

While the clear majority want to decrease or hold legal immigration steady, these numbers represent a longer-term pro-immigration shift — as of the mid-1990s, two-thirds of Americans wanted to decrease legal immigration, and only 6 or 7 percent wanted to increase it.

Read the rest:

https://www.npr.org/2018/01/23/580037717/what-the-latest-immigration-polls-do-and-dont-say

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Americans Are Officially Freaking Out — Psychological Association

November 1, 2017

Bloomberg

Almost two-thirds say this is the lowest point in U.S. history—and it’s keeping a lot of them up at night.
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For those lying awake at night worried about health care, the economy, and an overall feeling of divide between you and your neighbors, there’s at least one source of comfort: Your neighbors might very well be lying awake, too.

 Almost two-thirds of Americans, or 63 percent, report being stressed about the future of the nation, according to the American Psychological Association’s Eleventh Stress in America survey, conducted in August and released on Wednesday.  This worry about the fate of the union tops longstanding stressors such as money (62 percent) and work (61 percent) and also cuts across political proclivities. However, a significantly larger proportion of Democrats (73 percent) reported feeling stress than independents (59 percent) and Republicans (56 percent).

Image result for wall street bull, photos

The “current social divisiveness” in America was reported by 59 percent of those surveyed as a cause of their own malaise. When the APA surveyed Americans a year ago, 52 percent said they were stressed by the presidential campaign. Since then, anxieties have only grown.

A majority of the more than 3,400 Americans polled, 59 percent, said “they consider this to to be the lowest point in our nation’s history that they can remember.” That sentiment spanned generations, including those that lived through World War II, the Vietnam War, and the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11. (Some 30 percent of people polled cited terrorism as a source of concern, a number that’s likely to rise given the alleged terrorist attack in New York City on Tuesday.)

“We have a picture that says people are concerned,” said Arthur Evans, APA’s chief executive officer. “Any one data point may not not be so important, but taken together, it starts to paint a picture.”

The survey didn’t ask respondents specifically about the administration of President Donald Trump, Evans said. He points to the “acrimony in the public discourse” and “the general feeling that we are divided as a country” as being more important than any particular person or political party.

Yet he and the study note that particular policy issues are a major source of anxiety. Some 43 percent of respondents said health care was a cause. The economy (35 percent) and trust in government (32 percent) also ranked highly, as did hate crimes (31 percent) and crime in general (31 percent).

 

“Policymakers need to understand that this is an issue that is important to people, that the uncertainty is having an impact on stress levels, and that stress has an impact on health status,” Evans said, pointing out that the relationship between stress and health is well-established.

  • And keeping up with the latest developments is a source of worry all its own. Most Americans—56 percent—said they want to stay informed, but the news causes them stress. (Yet even more, 72 percent, said “the media blows things out of proportion.”)

The APA survey did find, however, that not everyone is feeling the same degree of anxiety. Women normally report higher levels of stress than men, though worries among both genders tend to rise or fall in tandem. This year, however, they diverged: On a 10-point scale, women reported a slight increase in stress, rising from an average 5.0 in 2016 to 5.1 in 2017, while the level for men dropped, from an average 4.6 to 4.4.

Racial divides also exist in reported stress. While the levels among blacks and Hispanics were lower in 2016 than the year before, they rose for both groups in 2017, to 5.2 for Hispanic adults and 5.0 for black adults. Among whites, meanwhile, the average remained the same, at 4.7.

The report also notes that many Americans are finding at least one healthy way to feel better: 53 percent reported exercising or doing other physical activity to cope. Social support is also important,  Evans said. “Third,” he says, “I think it’s really important for people to disconnect from the constant barrage of information.”

  1. The 2017 Stress in America survey was conducted by the Harris Poll on behalf of the APA. It was conducted online between Aug. 2 and Aug. 31, and had 3,440 participants, all ages 18 and up living in the U.S. It included 1,376 men, 2,047 women, 1,088 whites, 810 Hispanics, 808 blacks, 506 Asians and 206 Native Americans. Data were then weighted by age, gender, race/ethnicity, region, education and household income to reflect America’s demographics accurately. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-01/americans-are-officially-freaking-out

Le Pen Seen Ahead in First Round of French Election, Losing Second-Poll

March 9, 2017

PARIS — French far-right leader Marine Le Pen is seen well ahead in the first round of the presidential election but losing the second round by a wide margin to independent centrist Emmanuel Macron, an opinion poll showed on Thursday.

The monthly Cevipof survey for Le Monde newspaper has a much larger sample than most French election polls, with over 15,000 people surveyed.

It shows Le Pen with 27 percent of votes in the first round, up one percentage point from last month, with Macron stable at 23 percent and conservative Francois Fillon actually gaining one point to 19.5 percent despite the financial scandal he is embroiled in.

Macron is seen beating Le Pen in the run-off by 62 percent versus 38 percent. Were he to qualify for the second round instead of Macron, Fillon would still beat Le Pen but by a smaller margin of 55 percent versus 45 percent.

Most of the survey was carried out March 1 to 5, with an update with a sample of 1,000 people on March 6 and 7 to take into account that Fillon faced down a rebellion in his camp to be confirmed as candidate.

(Reporting by Ingrid Melander; editing by Michel Rose)

Related:

Macron consolidates lead over Le Pen in French election poll

March 9, 2017

Reuters

By Leigh Thomas and Sudip Kar-Gupta | PARIS

Emmanuel Macron’s position as favorite in France’s presidential election was boosted on Thursday by an opinion poll which showed him beating far-right leader Marine Le Pen in both the first and final rounds of the two-stage contest.

The Harris Interactive poll showed Macron winning the first round with 26 percent of votes, with Le Pen taking second place on 25 percent, sending the two to a May 7 run-off where he would trounce her with a score of 65 percent.

It was the second poll in the space of a week that put the 39-year-old ahead of Le Pen in the opening round, a signal that the centrist former economy minister may be consolidating his position 45 days from leg-one of the contest.

The race remains difficult to call, however, after a string of surprises, including Socialist incumbent Francois Hollande’s decision not to seek a second-term, and shock wins in primaries for contenders the pollsters had ruled out.

Additionally, financial scandals have engulfed Le Pen and conservative Francois Fillon, who after his surprise victory in the primary of The Republicans party as recently as January the clear poll favorite to become president.

In the latest poll, Fillon, who is struggling to relaunch a campaign derailed by a judicial investigation into allegations he lavishly paid his wife for minimal work as an assistant, comes third in the first round on 20 percent.

That would eliminate the erstwhile frontrunner. Were he to catch up in the weeks ahead and secure a place in the run-off versus Le Pen, the 63-year-old former prime minister would also beat her with a score of 59 percent.

For graphic on ‘French Presidential Election’ click: tinyurl.com/gskm7us

LE PEN SLIPPAGE

In both second-round scenarios, the margin by which Le Pen loses is wider than in some recent polls.

Le Pen’s campaign head, David Rachline, dismissed Thursday’s poll news, saying in reference to round one: “The reality right now is that Marine (Le Pen) is in front in almost all polls .”

While Le Pen’s score was unchanged from the last time the Harris poll was conducted two weeks ago, Macron’s surged six percentage points. In that period he unveiled his campaign manifesto and veteran centrist Francois Bayrou gave him his support.

The latest Harris survey, conducted on March 6-8 with a sample of 4,932 voters, also showed that while Macron voters were still the most undecided among those backing leading candidates, the proportion who were sure they would vote for him had risen by 10 percentage points to 59 percent.

The publication on Thursday coincided with the release of a research note from Credit Suisse bank that said the risk of a win for Le Pen, who wants to restore the French franc currency, was exaggerated.

Credit Suisse equity strategists raised their recommendation on investment in French equities – in technical jargon to “small overweight” from a lesser “benchmark”, partly on a belief that Le Pen would lose.

“We think the risk of a Le Pen victory is overestimated,” they wrote. “The 30 percent chance priced in betting markets is too high in our view,” they added.

(Writing by Brian Love; Editing by Andrew Callus and Toby Chopra)