• But in a year of muddled political orthodoxy, Trump “may well break the pattern of history and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory,” Lichtman said in interview after formally declaring the Republican nominee as the favorite to win on November 8
  • Lichtman’s prediction model, which isn’t based on polls, suggests victory for a “generic” GOP candidate
    • “Trump is anything but generic”: Lichtman
  • The American University professor’s “Keys to the White House” system looks at 13 true/false questions. If six or more of the keys go against the incumbent party occupying the White House then that means a win for the challenger; exactly six keys are now turned against Democrats, including one addressing Hillary Clinton’s candidacy and the perception she doesn’t possess the outward charisma of a Barack Obama or national-hero status of a Dwight Eisenhower
  • While former Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders won over a horde of young people by taking on the status quo, Clinton has yet to find a “simple, compelling message to inspire people”: Lichtman
    • That’s the challenge for her in Monday night’s first presidential debate, he says, where she’ll need to show in clear terms how “fundamentally” she and the GOP nominee differ in their competing visions for the future
    • “I don’t think anyone could tell you in one sentence what Clinton’s message is,” he says